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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still